Bits from Bill

Technology thoughts leaking from the brain of "Bill Pytlovany"

Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Bill's Predictions for 2009

I hate predictions for the New Year but I have no self-control so here goes.

Solid State Drives
This is one I made two years ago and is probably my most accurate prediction of the past.  The market has been flooded with solid state memory and some companies have scaled back production in an effort to keep prices stable. As the year goes on, the cost of SSD’s will come down and the size and speed will go up.

Year of the Laptop/Netbook
Even though we’re getting a new Windows this year, sales of Desktops won’t come close to the increase in large laptops and small netbooks. Companies will try their best to differentiate themselves from the competitors. Lenovo is even coming out with a ThinkPad with a screen that slides out to provide a dual screen experience.

3G Networks When Traveling
I have discovered when I travel Wi-Fi coverage can be spotty. Hotels which boast high speed Wi-Fi connections but they aren’t doing a very good job. Even at a recent Microsoft conference I ended up using my Verizon EV-DO connection because it was faster than the Wi-Fi provided. Currently the best reason to use 3G over WiFi is security. Keep your WiFi networking at home and use 3G when you travel.

Cloud Computing Will Be Boring
I’ll admit I’m not a fan of Cloud Computing. As far as I’m concerned I’ve already done Cloud Computing, it was called a main frame and dumb terminals. The reason we got rid of main frames wasn’t just COBOL.

Newspapers Will Want a Bail out
While television still tops our source of news, a recent Pew study said for the first time the Internet has passed newspapers as a more popular source of news. We will see the failure of many newspapers and you can bet they’ll go to Congress for help in keeping the news print tradition alive.
Click to read article

Windows 7 Won’t Suck
What I’ve seen so far of Windows 7 is promising and I think many people really really want it to succeed. My real prediction is the Microsoft will actually price Windows 7 so that people might actually buy it instead of trying to get a copy from their friend. When Vista first came out Bill Gates said it would be “less than a hundred dollars”.  That was the price for Vista Basic which was useless and a downgrade from Windows XP. Expect fewer versions of Windows 7 to be available to ease the confusion.

What are your predictions? Disagree? Click on the Comments link below.



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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Got to love a brave man who makes predictions, so, here's my twopence worth from the UK.

Solid State Drives - Think you may be a year, or two, early on this one yet.
Laptop/Netbook + 3G - Already mainstream here in UK. 2009 will be a big growth year, but, 2008 was year of acceptance.
Cloud Computing - Got to run with you on this one, expect to see reality intruding into cloud land. Sync services will buck trend though.
Newspapers - A couple of years early, at least for the UK, I would say.
Win 7 - Hope you are right, however, suspect another Vista! OK, becoming decent, O/S if you have the system to run it!

My prediction - Big growth in Sync Services like Foxmarks and GooSync to service multi-device mobile users. Sites like the excellent Zyb will have to extend the devices they support to have a long term future.

So now you won't be lonely come 2010 saying 'didn't see that coming!'.

Happy New Year all.


8:10 PM  

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